Insights

Evolving landscapes

Read about evolving landscapes to see trends and predictions for the Greater Brisbane property sector in 2024.

Our view for 2024

2024 is expected to see a continuation of uncertain conditions in the commercial property market. Whilst the stabilisation of interest rates will provide investors with increased certainty, we are not expecting a return to strong investment activity. Rather, we are of the view that 2024 will be a year of reset for many of the markets, with rental growth forecast to slow (albeit remain positive), occupier demand to soften, and investors and developers expected to sit on the sidelines for much of 2024 before a pick-up in activity from 2025. Interest in the alternative, more ‘recession proof’ property sectors, including alternative residential living, will gain further momentum.

Drivers of the SEQ property market in 2024

Population growth
Robust population growth is forecast to continue, with the Ipswich, Logan, Moreton Bay, and Sunshine and Gold Coasts to see the strongest long-term growth. Population growth will drive occupier demand across all property sectors.

State and local government elections
The Queensland State and Local Government Elections will be held in 2024. The completion of
elections typically bring increased confidence and certainty to the market. We expect to see a strong focus in the State Election on the residential market and supply issues.

Rental growth
Property values will be driven by rental growth. However, we note that rental growth is forecast to slow in 2024. Yields are likely to stabilise over 2024 as interest rates stabilise, providing more certainty to the investor market.

Interest rate stabilisation
Interest rates are likely at, or near, their peak. If a further increase is needed, we expect it will be at the RBA’s February meeting, following which the next move will likely be a cut. The stabilisation of interest rates will provide greater certainty to the market regarding the cost of debt; however, we do not expect to see an immediate bounceback in investor demand.

Global and domestic factors
There is a substantial amount of volatility at a global level due to the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars. Furthermore, domestic economic conditions remain uncertain, with inflation proving to be more stubborn than initially expected due largely to high rental, electricity and fuel costs. The economy is forecast to weaken in 2024.